The new world economy and its business opportunities
Most companies have been in a deep shock for 5 years now and they still do not see a way out of this shock, because they do not notice that a new world economy is coming. You could even say that their shock is only getting worse. The crisis of 2008 plunged them into this shock. A small part of the companies successfully got out of this crisis, an even smaller part did not even get there.
This suggests that the real problems are not in the economy, but in specific companies. What is the essence of these problems? It is that they do not understand that the old economy is dead, it is no more, and with it the old model of buyer behavior has died. Something grandiose is beginning, something that mankind has not seen before – a new world economy is being formed.
Companies that fit into this trend successfully survived the 2008 crisis and are growing, but companies that do not fit into the new economy are gradually merging. They will merge completely and leave the market forever, they will remain only in history. There can be no doubt about this.
States help their companies as much as they can, for example, the authorities of Belarus constantly introduce various kinds of restrictions on the import of goods, because, as the negative balance of foreign trade has become too large, so much so that the economy can no longer withstand this load.
The problem for Belarus is not new, it has existed for several years, but earlier it was possible to solve it through loans. They no longer give loans, because they know that they will not be able to return them. Accordingly, the problem has become particularly acute. From the outside, it may seem that this is only a problem for Belarus, they say, buy less if you do not want a negative balance of foreign trade.
However, it should be noted that such a problem would have existed in recent times, if it were not for a lot of commodities, which now have a high enough price for the country to receive the currency in the required amount. It is obvious that the new world economy is being formed anywhere, but not in the countries of the former USSR. World market leaders in these countries are unlikely to appear.
Generally speaking, the problem is typical for all countries of the world, absolutely all, because the economy is now global. The essence of the problem is that very few people really understand what the new world economy is. Those who understand do not talk about it, because they do not want to lose their strategic competitive advantage. Apparently, one such company is Coca-Cola, because Coca-Cola marketing remains effective even in the new conditions.
What is the new economy?
What is the new economy? It is easy to understand this if you understand what the world economy really lacks, what the deficit consists of. This deficiency consists in ideas and methods of introducing ideas. There is a huge infrastructure for the materialization and dissemination of ideas, but the ideas themselves are not enough and there are not enough implementation methods. All the methods that are used do not work well, because immunity has developed to them.
It can even be said that the real cause and essence of the crisis is that the existing ideas that correspond to reality have already been implemented, and there are no new ideas on the horizon, so to speak, the crisis of the genre has come. The world economy is up against a lack of ideas like a wall. She has nothing to do.
Of course, it continues to embody the old ideas and, in principle, works at their expense, but the income that is generated in it is no longer enough, because you can get big income only when you introduce innovations or, in other words, when you promote new ideas. This problem can be solved only if the new world economy is built on completely different principles.
So far, a serious solution to this problem on a global scale is not visible. Part of the problem is solved by the use of the trademark. Through the trademark, the implemented ideas are activated, and hence the motivation to buy is increased. But this is not enough. There is no real breakthrough solution. It may be there, but those who have it are just waiting for their competitors to leave the arena.
Accordingly, the crisis was avoided by companies that are able to generate and implement new ideas. In other words, now only those companies that can generate new ideas and implement them are making money. The generation of new ideas, their implementation and subsequent creation of a strong brand is the locomotive of the new economy. Accordingly, only those companies that fit into this economy can be successful.
What will the new world economy look like?
There are no such enterprises in the countries of the former USSR, only companies that can copy other people’s ideas remain here. Basically, representatives of the new world economy are concentrated in the United States, Europe and a little in Japan. China is also making some attempts to get hold of such enterprises, but so far it has not been successful. At the same time, a new industry based on 3D printers is being built for the new economy. They still have little capacity, but in 10 years they will be able to produce absolutely everything.
In fact, this means that the economy of Belarus, as well as recently and in principle other countries of the former USSR, has nothing to offer the world. If there is nothing to offer, then there is nothing to sell. Since there is nothing to sell, there will be no currency to buy imported goods. the current one is saved so far by the availability of raw materials, without which it is impossible to produce goods by those who generate and disseminate ideas.
However, the share of resources in the price of finished goods is quite small, which means that very soon the export of raw materials will not cover the import of goods even in recent times. All this will lead to the fact that if you do not start creating companies that correspond to the new world economy, then the standard of living will fall, because there will not be enough imported goods for everyone. It will be something like now in North Korea or as it was in the USSR, where modern goods are available only to a narrow stratum of people close to the elite.
In other words, the problems of states will become the problems of specific people. At the same time, they also affect business. This is due to the fact that a very large proportion of the population, both in Belarus and recently in other countries of the former USSR, is engaged in the import of goods and their sale. It is difficult to say how much this is exactly as a percentage, probably more than 50%. Accordingly, they live off of it. If there is no currency, there will be no opportunity to buy imported goods, which means that there will simply be nothing to trade.
If the situation does not change, and nothing indicates that it will change, many companies will not have anything to do, which means that the people working in them will be left without work. This is not fantasy – this is a very concrete reality. So far, it is typical mainly for Belarus, but when the volume of imports in the current one becomes greater than the volume of exports from recently, and this will happen very soon, since even military equipment has already begun to be purchased abroad, for example, Mistrals in France in the amount of 1.5 billion euro, the situation will change radically.
Thus, the economies of these countries will sag significantly.
So, very soon the countries of the former USSR will receive very serious restrictions on the import of goods. Of course, there may not be any restrictions on the part of the authorities, but the absence of a currency will not go anywhere and this will be the main restriction. Thus, the economies of these countries will shrink significantly. If we take Belarus, then in the very near future it will sink by about 10 billion US dollars, i.e. for the negative balance.
Accordingly, those companies that live off imports will be the first to fall under the distribution. Thus, potentially on the territory of Belarus, as well as other countries of the former USSR, we have unemployment at the level of 50-60%. No one will feel sorry for these people. The rest will be engaged in the extraction and export of raw materials, which means that nothing threatens them in the near future.
It is clear that this will be a very serious problem, because people will simply have nowhere to go to work. Export-oriented enterprises are already staffed, the creation of new enterprises is almost not envisaged. In other words, every second person will not have a job! Probably again, many will have to start growing potatoes and other vegetables in their dachas and villages in order to somehow survive.
It may seem that this is some kind of dream, that soon everything will work out. There is no need to hope for this, and there are examples of this: Libya, Egypt and other countries where problems have recently begun. It is clear that these problems were created precisely by those countries that have a fairly strong ideal sector of the economy, because only they have the resources necessary for this, free resources.
Other countries do not have the resources for this, they can at least cope with internal problems. These countries made it clear to everyone that they are not going to feed others anymore, to create markets for them at their own expense. They actually hinted that if you want to work, generate your ideas, promote them and then create markets based on them. If you don’t know how to do it, get business advice and learn.
They are no longer going to let anyone into their markets. What to do, the new world economy will be very tough, especially at first. Maybe later, when there is a surplus of the “pie", others will be allowed to see it, but again they will not let it just like that, but on favorable terms for the countries developed in terms of the new world economy. To understand how to live in the new conditions, it is recommended to read articles about business.
Accordingly, there is only one way out of this situation – we must start learning to generate new ideas as soon as possible, implement them in consumers and create products that correspond to these ideas. At the same time, it is desirable to engage in ideas that have export potential so that there is an opportunity to earn currency and buy imported goods. It is also desirable that local raw materials be used to create goods for the implementation of new ideas, so that one does not have to spend foreign currency on importing raw materials.